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Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Russian Federation.
Recently, Ukrainians finally received Western approval to use Western-delivered weapons to strike Russian military bases on Russian soil. This, combined with recent Ukrainian drone innovations that extend Ukraine’s strike range to 2,000 kilometers, led to a devastating combination of long-range strikes that damaged Russia’s ability to sustain the war both in the short- and in the long term.
The first target of the massive Ukrainian strike became a large oil depot in the city of Kaluga. To destroy it, Ukrainian forces used two long-range drones, causing a massive inferno to erupt in the middle of the city. Interestingly, the Ukrainian military intelligence service revealed that they unleashed new drones with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers away. These drones also have a powerful 75-kilogram warhead, nearly two times bigger than the Russian-Iranian Shahed drones. After destroying the Kaluga oil depot, Ukrainians hit a Russian artillery arsenal near Kotovo in the Novgorod region, 680 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, resulting in a loud explosion audible from several miles away. Later, Ukrainians hit a Russian electromechanical factory in Izhevsk, over 1300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, which produces Tor air0 defense systems, radars, and other technical components.
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on ammunition warehouses and oil depots directly impact Russians’ ability to sustain combat operations in the short term. However, strikes on Russian production facilities such as refineries and electromechanical factories severely damage the Russian ability to maintain the war in the long term. The main reason for this is that Russians are unable to produce or adequately repair many different components and manufacturing equipment. This means that by damaging or destroying these facilities, there is a significant chance that Ukrainians have destroyed or otherwise permanently diminished the Russian production capabilities of said equipment.
Moreover, to amplify Ukrainian deep-strike capabilities, the United States, Britain, and France recently allowed Ukraine to strike military targets on Russian soil. Russian forces have over 240 confirmed military objects within Ukrainian striking distance in Russian territory that Ukrainians were previously not allowed to target. These bases include, but are not limited to, airfields, ammunition depots, command and control centers, training and repair facilities, and logistics centers. Russians have used all these objects to conduct their war on Ukraine in relative safety from Ukrainian missile strikes. Now, Ukraine has finally received permission to strike back at these targets and eliminate the imposed safe zone for Russian forces.
The first Ukrainian target for the ATACMS missiles was the Karachev ammunition depot in the Bryansk region. Russian sources also reported heightened Ukrainian drone activity in the region as well, indicating that Ukrainians used drones to exhaust Russian air defense systems prior to the ATACMS strike. The ATACMS strike itself was a complete success, achieving a direct hit on the Russian base with a cluster munition warhead, as locals report hearing over a dozen secondary detonations as more ammunition caught fire. Ukrainian intelligence services report that the facility contained both conventional and rocket-propelled artillery ammunition, including shells provided by North Korea, guided glide bombs, and air defense missiles. As footage shared by local residents shows smoke clouds of a massive explosion rising into the air.
Overall, Ukrainian strike capabilities have been severely enhanced by the range restrictions on Western missile use being lifted, as well as Ukraine revealing to be capable of striking targets 2000 kilometers away with their new long-range kamikaze drones. While Ukrainians do not have a large enough stockpile of ATACMS missiles to strike all 250 known Russian military objects within range, Russians also do not have enough air defense systems to defend all of these targets and their frontline positions simultaneously. Consequently, Ukrainians can pick and choose which undefended bases to hit, exploiting gaps in the Russian air defense network. Unfortunately for Russians, the United States Department of Defense recently announced that they will be sending Ukrainians an undisclosed amount of ATACMS missiles in their upcoming aid package as well. This means that Ukraine's ability to dismantle Russian military infrastructure will gain even greater momentum, tightening the noose on Russian combat operations and bolstering Ukrainian hopes for a decisive edge in the war.